Russia continues to launch massive attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, using more than a hundred missiles and drones simultaneously.
If the consequences for the electricity sector are discussed almost daily, attacks on gas storage, distribution, and extraction receive significantly less attention. Although their destruction often turns out to be no less serious.
Why does the enemy target Ukraine’s gas infrastructure, and how could this affect the heating season?
Attacks on gas storage facilities
Ukraine has one of the most powerful networks of underground gas storage facilities (UGSF) in Europe, consisting of 11 storage facilities with a total capacity of about 31 billion cubic meters.
UGSFs perform three key functions: supplying gas to domestic consumers, ensuring the transit of Russian gas to the European Union, and creating fuel reserves for the heating season.
"From the first day of the full-scale invasion, Naftogaz facilities, including our underground gas storage facilities, have been under enemy fire. Concentrated attacks on them have intensified since spring 2024," the state company told EP.
For understandable reasons, Naftogaz does not publish details about the facilities and the consequences of the attacks, limiting itself to phrases like "the enemy has once again attacked the gas infrastructure facilities of the Naftogaz group."
The Kremlin does not hide the fact of attacks on civilian energy infrastructure, on which the transit of Russian gas through Ukraine also depends. Here is what the Russian Ministry of Defence said after the latest massive attack on Ukraine’s energy sector: "A strike was also carried out on gas compressor stations in the Lviv, Ivano-Frankivsk, and Kharkiv regions, which ensure the functioning of Ukraine’s gas transportation system."
By the way: storage facilities are located underground at a depth of 400 meters to 2 kilometers, so the fuel is not harmed by the attacks.
Russia is attacking above-ground infrastructure and gas compressor stations, without which the injection or withdrawal of gas from storage facilities becomes impossible.
What goal are the Russians pursuing
EP sources in the gas market named three main objectives of the Russian attacks on storage facilities.
The first is to disrupt Ukraine’s preparation for the heating season by eliminating the possibility of injecting gas into UGSFs. "The math is very simple. Assume that winter consumption will be about 100 million cubic meters per day, and domestic production is 45 million cubic meters per day. Where to get the difference?"
This could be storage facilities or imports, or both. Therefore, they are hitting these "undergrounds" so that we cannot inject now and subsequently withdraw gas. Without UGSFs, it will be difficult to get through the winter," says the former head of the "Operator of the Ukrainian GTS" Serhiy Makogon.
The second reason – attacks affect the volumes of gas injected by EU traders. If before the start of the last heating season, foreign traders and energy companies injected 2.5 billion cubic meters of gas into Ukrainian storage facilities, in 2024 this volume is negligible. Although Naftogaz itself announced ambitious plans - the injection of 4 billion cubic meters of gas by non-residents.
Naftogaz acknowledged that compared to 2023, the volumes of gas injected by non-residents are lower, but they consider the main reason for this to be not the attacks.
"There were military risks last year, however, non-residents actively injected gas into our UGSFs. The main reason for the decrease in injection volumes this year is the lack of commercial conditions."
"Currently, no one is injecting anything, perhaps a tiny amount. This is related to the attacks, who could - all lifted and exported. Currently, there are several hundred million cubic meters of non-residents’ gas in the storage facilities, there is definitely no talk of billions," says an EP source in the energy market.
However, a high-ranking EP source in the government claims that foreigners continue to inject gas into Ukrainian storage facilities. "During the last attack, the Russians used cluster munitions to cover a large area. The storage infrastructure is spread over a vast territory, and when one pipe is hit, it can quickly switch to another," the source explained.
Third, attacks also affect the transit of Russian gas, although it would seem that the Kremlin itself is primarily interested in it.
"Technically, it looks like this: the Russians feed gas into the pipe through Sudzha, part of the fuel is withdrawn along the way and supplied to our consumers, and then we lift the difference from the "undergrounds" and deliver it to the border with Slovakia. Thus, we balance the transit. If we are left without "undergrounds," it will be very difficult, and there is a high probability that we will not be able to efficiently handle the transit.
This is important in the context of talks about the need to extend the transit. They say, if it stops, then the Russians will start hitting our GTS. Yes, they are already hitting! There are a lot of damages," says Makogon.
Are gas supply interruptions possible in winter
Experts and participants in the gas market surveyed by EP believe that if attacks continue in winter, Russia could create many problems for Ukraine. Naftogaz is also aware of this.
We understand that the enemy will not abandon plans to destroy Ukrainian energy, so we are preparing for different possible scenarios to achieve the required capacity," Naftogaz added.
The company claims that they do not plan to limit gas supplies to the population in winter.
"The resource, thanks to domestic production, is available. Thanks to the large system of gas storage facilities, we are also accumulating the necessary fuel reserve for the winter. Damage to the distribution part is promptly repaired, and gas supplies are resumed," the company said.
According to Makohon, getting through the winter will depend on whether there are new enemy attacks and what their consequences will be. "If they completely disable the facilities they targeted since the beginning of the year, it will be difficult to provide the population and district heating companies with the necessary amount of gas. Then we will have to impose restrictions, as we do with electricity," warns the former head of the "Operator of GTS."
The head of the analytical center "Strategy XXI," Mykhailo Honchar, believes that there will be no apocalyptic scenario in winter.
"For that, you need an even larger supply of missiles and drones, compared to strikes on the electricity sector. The gas industry has a slightly different specificity. Storage facilities are located deep underground, and the above-ground infrastructure retains maneuverability and flexibility due to its branching. Of course, we should not harbor illusions that the strikes will stop. Based on the example of 2024, we see that this will not happen," the expert said.
A government source told EP that the gas situation in winter will be better than with electricity. "If the transit stops and there are significant damages to gas compressor stations, then gas supply restrictions to the population and problems with centralized heating are possible. This is under a pessimistic scenario," he said.
How to avoid this? "We see that the Russians continue to hit the gas infrastructure. If they break the so-called Kyiv ring - the network that supplies gas to the capital, Kyiv will be left without light, gas, and heat. The only way to avoid this scenario is to strengthen air defense," concluded the EP source.