Russia has changed its tactics for attacking energy targets in Ukraine. Is air defence ready for enemy strikes on the eve of winter, and how can the protection of facilities be improved?
In this situation, special correspondent of RBC-Ukraine Yuriy Doshchatov investigated.
Two months ago, Russia launched a new wave of attacks on Ukrainian energy facilities. In early August, an oil depot of the Azerbaijani oil company SOCAR in the Odesa region was shelled. Later, attacks continued on energy facilities in various regions of the country.
On September 8, the Trypilska Thermal Power Plant was shelled, resulting in power outages in surrounding settlements and parts of Kyiv. In early October, the most powerful combined attack targeted gas extraction facilities in the Kharkiv and Poltava regions. "This is the most massive attack on our gas extraction infrastructure since the beginning of the full-scale war," said Serhiy Koretsky, head of NAK "Naftogaz of Ukraine."
Considering that the largest attack on Ukraine’s gas extraction occurred in February 2025, with losses amounting to about 40% of daily production, the new attack had even more serious consequences.
In recent days, shelling of energy infrastructure in the regions has intensified. Due to damage to gas and electricity networks, tens of thousands of subscribers were left without gas and electricity. Problems arose in the Zaporizhzhya, Kherson, Vinnytsia, Kharkiv, and even Lviv and Ivano-Frankivsk regions.
Most of the damage has been repaired, and service delivery to consumers has been restored. As of the evening of October 6, 3,500 subscribers in the Kharkiv region remained without electricity.
The situation remains quite difficult in the Sumy and Chernihiv regions. According to Deputy Energy Minister Mykola Kolesnyk, emergency schemes for service delivery and connections to alternative power sources are being used in these regions.
In the Chernihiv region, power outage schedules are being applied. "Schedules are used so that all repair work can be carried out in parallel and electricity can be supplied to all consumers," Kolesnyk noted.
Russia has changed its shelling tactics
The increase in strikes on facilities in Ukraine, including energy ones, can be explained by the Russians changing their shelling tactics. As Deputy General Director of a company producing electronic warfare equipment Anatoliy Khrapchynskyi told RBC-Ukraine, the shelling is now not only combined but also denser.
"The effectiveness of Russian strikes is becoming more noticeable. The enemy not only combines means of attack but also increases their density; now more missiles and drones are launched at facilities simultaneously, from different directions, focusing on several key directions. We must also not forget about the constant shelling of energy infrastructure in the Sumy and Chernihiv regions," he said.
Having intelligence data on air defense systems located in areas of potential targets and understanding the time required for their reloading and preparation, Russians calculate the opportune moment for a strike so that the number of attack means significantly exceeds the capabilities of air defense systems.
In addition, Russians actively use "decoy drones" to distract air defense forces, employing "Shahed" drones and missiles with flight paths that inevitably pass through populated areas. "This complicates the process of intercepting targets and can have collateral consequences during interception," Khrapchynskyi noted.
Russians have changed not only their shelling tactics but also their choice of targets. If previously they attacked large facilities of the transmission system (operator "Ukrenergo" - ed.) and generation, now they primarily target distribution system facilities - regional power companies and other local companies that supply electricity to end consumers.
Director of the "Psychea" center Hennadiy Ryabtsev believes that such a change in the tactics of selecting targets for attack is very dangerous since, until now, all engineering and technical protection programs were implemented centrally and primarily covered the largest energy companies: "Ukrenergo," "Naftogaz," and others.
Local authorities were responsible for the security of supply companies, and due to a lack of funds, they did not ensure the necessary level of protection everywhere. Likely, having more detailed information on the regions, Russians are building their shelling tactics accordingly, Ryabtsev believes.
"It is not excluded that the analysis of this information led to a shift in focus to strikes on equipment of local operators. We see how effective the strikes on Shostka and Chernihiv were. So now we need to analyze the reasons for such consequences as quickly as possible," Ryabtsev stated in a comment to RBC-Ukraine.
Active protection of facilities needs to be strengthened
Ryabtsev also believes that, in addition to engineering and technical protection, active protection with air defense systems should be strengthened. The northern direction is currently the least protected, Ryabtsev noted.
"If you look at where most drones come from and where they most often reach their targets, it’s the Chernihiv region. This indicates problems with security systems, both active and engineering-technical, in this direction," the expert said.
Anatoliy Khrapchynsky also spoke about the need to strengthen air defense protection. "We need to talk about increasing air defense elements specifically in the countermeasures system. And we need to work on creating active protection systems near strategic facilities. Of other protection systems (engineering-technical - ed.), only underground placement of facilities can be effective," Khrapchynsky said.
Member of the Rada Committee on Energy Issues Serhiy Nahornyak proposed increasing the use of helicopters for more effective drone interception. Ukraine is already using them for these purposes. According to Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Oleksandr Syrskyi, helicopters show high efficiency, and depending on the weather, they sometimes shoot down up to 40% of drones in their areas.
Strengthening the protection of strategic facilities is extremely important since Russians will likely continue shelling Ukraine’s energy infrastructure. Compromise options, such as reducing the intensity of energy shelling from both sides as was the case last year, are not expected this time.
Where else will Russia strike?
Predicting the next targets of the Russians is difficult. Ryabtsev does not rule out that they could include gas import capacities, gas storage facilities, or electricity generation facilities and "Ukrenergo."
The installation of second-level protective structures, i.e., concrete constructions, has been completed at only half of "Ukrenergo" facilities, stated Deputy Head of the Rada Committee on Energy Oleksiy Kucherenko during a telethon broadcast.
"Ukrenergo" confirmed that second-level protection has been installed for every second transformer. "The rest will be protected in the first half of 2026 (with second-level protection - ed.)," said the head of NEC "Ukrenergo" Vitaliy Zaichenko in a comment to RBC-Ukraine.
"Ukrenergo," he noted, continues to install anti-drone protection at key facilities of the electricity transmission system. Second-level protective structures significantly reduce the time required to carry out emergency repair work after enemy attacks. The constructed protective structures, the head of "Ukrenergo" noted, have already proven their effectiveness after direct hits by strike drones, and at some facilities - after several consecutive hits.
Typically, two transformers are installed at each substation. To install protection, they need to be turned off. "Disabling a significant amount of equipment at once, around which protection needs to be built, would mean forced prolonged power outages for consumers over large areas. Therefore, the process of building shelters was divided into two phases," Zaichenko noted.
The first phase included key substations to maintain the integrity of the energy system’s functioning during electricity transmission from west to east and from south to north. "As of today, the transformers of the first phase are already protected, and the second phase is planned to be completed in the first half of 2026," Vitaliy Zaichenko noted.
Headquarters meeting and the need for additional gas imports
The issue of protecting energy facilities was discussed on October 6 at the Headquarters of the Supreme Commander-in-Chief. According to Volodymyr Zelenskyy, reports on the deployment of additional air defense capabilities were heard.
"Additional resources are still needed to provide an adequate response to every problem," the President of Ukraine stated.
Deputy Energy Minister Mykola Kolesnyk reported that negotiations with international partners are underway to provide assistance in reducing risks during the heating season.
"We have an understanding of additional capacities to cover needs and the measures required to stabilize the operation of the gas transmission system as a whole," Kolesnyk said during a telethon.
In a comment to RBC-Ukraine, he clarified that this concerns funds for importing additional gas volumes, which Ukraine seeks to obtain from partners.
According to Energy Minister Svitlana Hrynchuk, this involves an additional import of about 1.5 billion cubic meters of gas. Negotiations are currently underway to secure funds for these purposes with the EBRD, the European Commission, and partner countries.
According to unofficial forecasts from government representatives previously obtained by RBC-Ukraine, in a negative scenario, Ukraine may need an additional 2-2.4 billion cubic meters of gas. This is in addition to the 13.2 billion planned to be accumulated in storage by mid-October.
As of the 6th, the plan is close to being fulfilled - 12.83 billion cubic meters have been accumulated. However, in recent days, based on open data amid cooling weather and destruction, the rate of gas accumulation has decreased from 38 million (on 1.10) to 17 million (on 6.10) cubic meters per day.