ISW: Russians are preparing cross-border raids and trying to advance near Avdiivka

East of Ukraine. Operation No. 1 – Lugansk region

It is reported that individual units of the Russian Guard carried out an operational redeployment to the border areas of the Belgorod region. As Ukrainian military observer Konstantin Mashovets said on February 7, units of the 116th special forces brigade of the Russian Guard, namely its 900th and 902nd regiments, redeployed to the Belgorod region from the occupied part of the Donetsk region in the first week of February. He noted that these regiments have particularly powerful artillery, so they were probably redeployed to the Belgorod group of forces.

Previously, ISW experts noted that the 116th special forces brigade of the Russian Guard and its new regiments were redeployed to the occupied part of the Donetsk region at the end of December 2023 to ensure “law and order” in the occupied regions of Ukraine, so their speedy redeployment “deserves attention.”

ISW analysts also assessed that Russian forces could carry out tactical sabotage cross-border raids into the Kharkov region from the Belgorod region in order to distract and push back the Ukrainian Armed Forces from the Kupyansk-Svatovo-Kremennaya direction, where Russian troops are currently conducting offensive operations, and at least two regiments of the Russian Guard could support such future sabotage activities.

“However, Russian troops are unlikely to be able to conduct large-scale offensive operations in the Kharkov region from the Belgorod region,” the report says.

On February 7, positional combat continued along the Kupyansk-Svatovo-Kremennaya line, but there were no confirmed changes in the front line in this area.

Russian and Ukrainian forces reported trench fighting northeast of Kupyansk near Sinkovka and Ivanovka; southeast of Kupyansk near Tabaevka; west of Kremennaya near Ternov and Torskoye; southwest of Kremennaya near Grigorovka; and south of Kremennaya near Belogorovka.

Russian sources claimed that Russian troops had allegedly reached tactical heights east of Ternov and captured positions in the Belogorovka industrial zone, but ISW analysts did not observe visual evidence of these claimed achievements.

A Russian “military correspondent” reported that Russian troops allegedly intend to reach the Oskol River in the Kupyansk direction and capture the city of Liman, west of Kremennaya.

Operation No. 2 – Donetsk region

On February 7, limited positional combat continued in the Bakhmut area, but there were no confirmed changes on the front line. Ukrainian and Russian sources reported positional battles northwest of Bakhmut near Bogdanovka; west of Bakhmut near Ivanovsky; and southwest of Bakhmut near Kleschievka.

Geolocation footage released on February 7 shows that Russian troops have recently made a minor advance northeast of New York (west of Gorlovka). According to the Russian Ministry of Defense, their forces allegedly repelled Ukrainian attacks northwest of Gorlovka near Shumy and Yuzhny.

Russian troops were reported to have continued to advance into the northern part of Avdeevka, although there was no confirmed control over terrain changes in the area on 7 February.

Several Russian “military correspondents” claimed that Russian troops were allegedly moving south along Zheleznodorozhny Lane in the northwest of Avdeevka. One Russian blogger said that units of the 114th Motorized Rifle Brigade (DPR) and the 30th Motorized Rifle Brigade of the Russian Federation during a maneuver allegedly wedged themselves into the Ukrainian group on Zheleznodorozhny Lane in an attempt to cut and isolate the Ukrainian Armed Forces units into two groups at the point.

Ukrainian military observer Konstantin Mashovets said that Russian troops reached the northern part of the garden society on Zheleznodorozhny Lane.

Russian "military correspondents" also claimed that Russian troops had advanced west to a coke plant in the north-west of Avdeevka. According to Mashovets, Russian troops are now focused on blocking Grushevskogo Street, the remaining Ukrainian land line that runs west from Koksokhim to Avdiivka through the northwestern part of the settlement. Russian bloggers also claimed that Russian troops now control 18 to 20 percent of Avdiivka.

Russian troops recently confirmed an offensive to the west and southwest of the city of Donetsk. Geolocation footage published on February 7 shows that the invaders have advanced to the eastern outskirts of Georgievka (west of Donetsk), and several “military correspondents” claim that Russian troops have allegedly gained a foothold in this settlement.

Additional geolocation footage released on February 7 shows elements of the Russian 155th Marine Infantry Brigade (Pacific Fleet) advancing toward eastern Novomikhailovka along Lenin Street, consistent with statements by several Russian "military correspondents" that Russian troops have entered eastern Novomikhailovka .

Ukrainian and Russian sources reported that positional combat continued west of Donetsk in the area of Krasnohorivka and Georgievka and southwest of Donetsk in the area of Pobeda and Novomikhailovka.

"Southern Axis"

Russian troops recently confirmed advances in the area of the border between Donetsk and Zaporozhye regions amid ongoing positional battles in the area on February 7. Geolocation footage released on February 6 and NASA Fire Information for Resource Management (FIRMS) data from February 6 indicate that Russian forces have advanced north of Nikolskoye (east of Ugledar).

The Russian “military correspondent” claimed that Russian troops allegedly advanced east of Ugledar in the direction of the Yuzhnodonbass mine. Another Russian blogger said that the occupiers had advanced south of Velikaya Novoselka near Staromayorsky, but ISW experts found no visual confirmation of this claim.

Ukrainian and Russian sources claim that positional hostilities continued southeast of Velikaya Novoselka in the Zolotaya Niva area and southwest of Velikaya Novoselka in the Priyutnoye area.

Positional combat continued on February 7 in the west of the Zaporozhye region, but no confirmed changes in the front line were recorded in this area. Ukrainian and Russian sources stated that positional fighting continued near Rabotino and Verbovoye (east of Rabotino).

A Russian “military correspondent” said that Ukrainian drones are limiting the ability of Russian troops to use armored vehicles day and night in the Orekhovsky direction, and that Russian forces are experiencing an acute shortage of drones. The blogger claimed that Russian troops were concentrated in the Bakhmut and Donetsk directions, but suggested that they resume offensive operations in the Zaporozhye direction in order to stretch the reserves of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and divert them from other critical directions.

Ukrainian and Russian forces confirmed an offensive on the eastern (left) bank of the Kherson region amid ongoing trench fighting in the area on February 7.

Geolocation footage published on February 7 shows that the Defense Forces have advanced in eastern Krynki. Additional geolocation footage released on February 7 shows that Russian troops have advanced into southern Krynki. Ukrainian and Russian sources stated that positional clashes continued in Krynki.