ISW assessed the consequences of Ukrainian drone attacks on the Russian Federation • Версия для печати • ANTIKOR portal

ISW assessed the consequences of Ukrainian drone attacks on the Russian Federation

On the night of March 13, “Ukrainian entities” carried out large-scale drone strikes on energy infrastructure and military facilities in Russia. Against the backdrop of statements by the Russian Ministry of Defence about “shooting down all targets,” propagandists acknowledged the arrivals at oil plants and military airfields.

Such reports prove that Ukraine can influence the critical energy and military infrastructure of an aggressor country with the help of a few relatively inexpensive drones. This is stated in the report of the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

The day before, Ukrainian media, citing sources in the Security Service (SSU), reported that on the night from Tuesday to Wednesday, drones hit oil refineries in the Ryazan, Rostov and Leninhrad regions of the Russian Federation, as well as military airfields in Buturlinovka and Voronezh.

The head of the Ryazan region, Pavlo Malkov, confirmed that a UAV hit the oil refinery, causing a fire, and the footage shows a plume of smoke rising above the refinery area.

At least three drones attacked the Novoshakhtinskyi oil refinery in the Rostov region, which led to its temporary shutdown. Some Russian sources additionally claimed that one UAV struck the regional FSB building in Byelhorod, but opposition Russian media noted that Kremlin media later deleted the report of this particular arrival.

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The Russian Ministry of Defence claimed that on the night of March 12-13, Russian air defence “destroyed 58 drones”: 29 over the Voronezh region, 11 over the Byelhorod region, eight each over Kursk and Bryansk, one each over Leninhrad and Ryazan.

A well-known blogger associated with the Kremlin stated that air defense and electronic warfare systems (EW) destroyed and neutralized all Ukrainian drones, but at the same time admitted that the drones specifically attacked the Ryazannefteprodukt oil refinery, the Kiryshi oil refinery in Kiryshi, Leninhrad region, and the Novoshakhtinskyi oil refinery in the Rostov region. areas.

Another blogger specializing in aviation noted that in the Voronezh region this time, UAVs mainly attacked military airfields.

Sources in the SSU told Ukrainian publications that these strikes were aimed at reducing Russia’s economic production, as well as reducing oil revenues and fuel supplies, which the aggressor uses directly for its military actions against Ukraine.

ISW noted that since the beginning of 2024, “Ukrainian entities” (officially, the Defence Forces and Ukrainian special services did not take responsibility for such “claps” on the territory of the Russian Federation. – Ed.) have constantly carried out such attacks using drones on several large Russian oil refineries factories, for example, in the Krasnodar Territory and the Volhohrad Region in January and February.

The Russian newspaper Kommersant reported last month that Russian refineries reduced production volumes by 4% in January 2024 compared to the same period in 2023 and by 1.4% compared to December 2023. Propagandists wrote that the decline was partly a consequence of an increase in drone attacks on oil infrastructure.

“Such reports of reduced refinery output are rare, but they show that Ukraine can exert asymmetric influence on critical Russian energy and military infrastructure by targeting high-value assets with just a few relatively inexpensive drones,” ISW stated.