ISW: AFU may be allowed to attack the rear areas of Russia with Western weapons

It is noted that the US permission actually created a fairly large territory over which the Defence Forces have the right to fire from Western weapons. At the same time, certain restrictions on the types of American weapons have limited the ability of the Ukrainian Armed Forces to strike areas remote from the border with Ukraine, which Russia uses to cover its own combat forces, command and control, logistics and logistics support.

“US permission to strike the territory of the Russian Federation with American weapons to destroy some military targets on a small section of the Ukrainian-Russian border has reduced the size of Russian ground “inviolable” territory by a maximum of 16%. However, US policy allows the aggressor to retain at least another 84% of ground protection "Ukraine is prohibited from using anti-aircraft missile systems in the rest of Russia, which still protects the vast majority of its operational and deep rear," the report says.

ISW analysts suggest that the Ukrainian Armed Forces can hit all legitimate military targets within range of multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS) in the Belgorod, Kursk and Bryansk regions. At the same time, the report says, it is far from certain that the Defense Forces have permission to do this. Senior U.S. officials have allowed Ukraine to launch counter-battery MLRS into Russia, but have limited such attacks geographically to the state border in the Kharkiv region.

In fact, the Armed Forces have the right to strike Russian military targets “located directly along the Ukrainian border.” Defence forces cannot be prohibited from hitting Russian military targets further in the rear or in other areas of the Kursk and Bryansk regions, which are also within the range of the MLRS.

“Statements by American officials also indicate that the Ukrainian Armed Forces may be limited in their ability to strike Russian military targets that are not actively participating in ground attacks and strikes against Ukraine. Thus, the reduction in the area of Russia’s safe (inviolable) space could be less than 16 percent,” the report says.

ISW noted that the current change in US policy, although a step in the right direction, cannot reduce the scale of further attacks by the aggressor on the Ukrainian border.

At the same time, the Institute noted that Western governments support and are discussing permission for the Ukrainian Armed Forces to use Western weapons to also attack Russian rear operational and deep rear areas on Russian territory.