When to expect a massive attack from Russia and how many missiles the enemy has accumulated

When to expect a massive attack from Russia and how many missiles the enemy has accumulated

The Russian Federation continues to subject Ukrainian cities to attacks using a large number of drones, GABs, and various missiles, but has not used X-101 cruise missiles for more than two months. 

On the night of November 7-8, the Russian Armed Forces attacked peaceful cities in Ukraine. According to the Air Force, the enemy used an Iskander-M ballistic missile, four guided air missiles X-59/69, 92 Shahed attack drones, and drones of unknown types. In addition, Russian tactical aviation struck with guided aerial bombs in the Kharkiv and Sumy regions.

In the regions of Odesa, Mykolaiv, Kyiv, Sumy, Kharkiv, Poltava, Kirovohrad, Zhytomyr, Chernihiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Khmelnytskyi, and Ivano-Frankivsk, Ukrainian air defense forces destroyed:

• four X-59/69 missiles;
• 62 drones.

An additional 26 drones were lost in various regions.

It is worth noting that Russia has not used X-101 cruise missiles against Ukraine for more than two months. During this time, strategic bombers Tu-95MS have conducted numerous training flights. Nevertheless, the increase in drone attacks and the use of guided air missiles may suggest the beginning of massive missile attacks and possibly the return of cruise missiles in the near future.

Russia is stockpiling cruise missiles: when to expect massive attacks

According to military expert and reserve major of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Oleksiy Hetman, the Russian Armed Forces are preparing for a massive attack when the cold sets in, which is why they are not currently using cruise missiles in attacks on peaceful Ukrainian cities.

"The Russians intend to launch a massive attack on our energy facilities using all possible means — ballistic, cruise, unmanned, and all available resources," Hetman said.

He emphasized that the enemy does not hide its intentions to destroy the energy sector to deprive Ukrainians of the ability to heat their homes in winter.

"We cannot say exactly when they plan to do this, but we are preparing because such massive raids require preparation and last at least a week. You can’t prepare a massive attack today for tomorrow," the major noted.

Military analyst Pavlo Narozhnyi pointed out that Russia is currently attacking Ukraine with a large number of Shaheds, while the production of cruise missiles continues without interruption.

"There are currently no factors that could impede the production of cruise missiles. Many Western components are used, but the Russians obtain them through third countries and gray imports," Narozhnyi reported.

The analyst also believes that the enemy is stockpiling missiles for use during peak winter periods to initiate large-scale bombardments during that time. The Russian Federation may carry out combined strikes using Shaheds, cruise, and ballistic missiles. The current task of the Russian army is to exhaust Ukraine’s Air Force.

Has Russia’s tactic of massive shelling changed?

Hetman said that previously, the Russian Armed Forces launched massive strikes across the entire territory of Ukraine — conventionally, ten rockets were used for ten targets. However, he now believes that the Russians are focusing on two or three targets and applying 30-50 missiles to each. Hetman noted that the enemy believes this approach is more effective, so some missiles will be intercepted, but some will reach their targets.

He stated that Russia does not change the main tactic of shelling, as all this has long been prescribed in their plans.

"They simply choose one of the possible variants, rather than invent something new. All air attack plans and their variants were developed long ago. Nothing new is being implemented," he explained.

Narozhny emphasized that the Russians are incapable of developing a new tactic for shelling. Instead, several waves of strikes in different directions should be expected.

Is the Ukrainian air defence ready for massive Russian attacks?

Pavlo Narozhnyi reported that no country in the world is capable of producing air defense missiles at the necessary speed to counter the production of Russian cruise missiles. These aerial assets can be intercepted using aviation, SAMs, and MANPADS, but this is not enough. He believes that the Russian Armed Forces will organize massive shelling, attempting to breach the Ukrainian air defense system.

According to Oleksiy Hetman, the Ukrainian air defense is preparing for massive enemy attacks. Kyiv is also negotiating with partners to receive more missiles and air defense systems. He noted that it is easier to combat cruise missiles than ballistic ones. However, this does not guarantee the destruction of all aerial assets, and some will reach their targets. Moreover, the enemy is improving their missiles.

The major believes that over these months, the enemy could have accumulated about 300 different missiles, such as X-101, Kalibrs, Kinzhal, Iskanders, and others. Narozhnyi added that Russia produces approximately two cruise missiles per day and about ten ballistic ones per month.