Media: Ukraine will not be able to create a nuclear bomb in the near future

Media: Ukraine will not be able to create a nuclear bomb in the near future

Ukraine will not be able to create a nuclear bomb in the near future, and its possession would not only not improve Kyiv’s position in the war but also pose serious risks for it, writes Der Spiegel, based on opinions from scientists and experts.

The publication recalls that last week the British Times reported on a document from the Ukrainian analytical center "Center for Army, Conversion and Disarmament Studies" (CACDS), which was allegedly prepared for the Ministry of Defence of Ukraine.

According to this report, a "simple" nuclear bomb, similar to the one dropped by the U.S. on Nagasaki in Japan in August 1945, could be developed by Ukraine "quickly." It could be based on plutonium from the spent fuel rods of nine nuclear reactors under Ukraine’s control.

In mathematical terms, the country possesses approximately seven tons of plutonium, which, according to the report, is enough to create "hundreds" of tactical warheads. However, this seven tons of plutonium is mixed with over 1300 tons of other highly radioactive materials and is not suitable for weapon creation in its current state.

According to Hans Kristensen of the Federation of American Scientists in Washington, to create a nuclear bomb, Ukraine would first need to design the weapon, which is "complex and would take a lot of time."

There are two main approaches to producing weapon-grade nuclear material:

– Uranium enrichment, for instance, using gas centrifuges. Here, a special component, the radioactive isotope uranium-235, capable of sustaining a nuclear chain reaction after a bomb explosion, is extracted in the highest possible concentration from natural uranium.

– Alternatively, the fissile isotope plutonium-239 could be obtained in sufficient quantities. Plutonium is produced at nuclear power plants during the regular operation of uranium fuel rods.

"However, separating plutonium-239 would require a special fuel burn method and reprocessing method," explained William Alberque from the Stimson Center think tank in Washington to SPIEGEL.

However, Ukraine does not have the facilities for nuclear waste reprocessing, and it will not be able to quickly build such a plant.

"It took North Korea almost ten years to build a plant in Yongbyon," said Liviu Horovitz from the German Institute for International and Security Affairs.

Even if we assume that Ukraine is more persistent, invests more resources, and has a more qualified workforce—these are "dubious assumptions," according to the nuclear weapons expert—it’s a matter of "years at best."

Even if Ukraine wanted to build reprocessing facilities, it would be a bad idea, believes Ulrich Kühn, head of the arms control and new technologies research department at the Institute for Peace Research and Security Policy.

Ground construction work in the early stages is noticeable not only to international inspectors but also to Russia.

"Therefore, Ukraine would have to build such facilities secretly underground, otherwise, it risks being bombed by Russia," Kühn claims.

The publication concludes that the claims that the country can create an elementary nuclear bomb in a few months, as stated in the report, are "nonsense."

There is also a strategic aspect: possessing one or several nuclear bombs would not strengthen Ukraine’s position against Russia, which still possesses a large nuclear arsenal. On the contrary, the presence of a nuclear bomb would put Ukraine in an even more vulnerable position.

According to SWP researcher Horovitz, Ukrainian nuclear armament would provide Russia with "an excellent pretext to convincingly threaten or even use nuclear weapons to disarm Ukraine."

If Ukraine were to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, it would find itself on par with isolated North Korea, believes Ulrich Kühn.

"After such a step, Ukraine would be stigmatized internationally. I do not believe that Western military aid would continue to be provided then in the previous volume," he stated.