DeepState assessed the likelihood of the Russians capturing Kupyansk

DeepState assessed the likelihood of the Russians capturing Kupyansk

Russian occupation forces continue to exert pressure in the Kupyansk area, particularly near the settlement of Synkivka. However, there are currently no direct assaults on the city. At the same time, the Russians constantly redeploy forces to this front line, but the Defence Forces promptly destroy them.

This was noted by Roman Pohorily, the founder of DeepStateUA, in an interview. According to him, fighting in Synkivka has been ongoing continuously since the beginning when the counteroffensive operation was conducted in the Kharkiv region.

"To the left or west of Synkivka towards Kupyansk, there is a bulge. They try to break through, but these are ongoing actions, nothing new. Now, there is a bridgehead on the left bank of the Oskil River, particularly in the Nosvyatovka area, with some advances, including in the Zapadne area and southward towards Kindrashivka and Holubivka, which is towards Kupyansk. But this is not an assault on Kupyansk, but an expansion of the bridgehead control zone," the expert noted.

According to him, the main enemy goal in this sector of the front is Dvorichna and Zapadne.

"Dvorichna is an opportunity to secure the bridgehead, have territory to create a fortified area, a hub where forces can be accumulated for further advancement, expanding control over territory and creating problems for the Defence Forces. In the case of Zapadne, there is a possibility of controlling the heights towards Doroshivka. Although the heights in the Zapadne area are already occupied, this gives a tactical advantage in the control zone for targeting logistics, thanks to the ability to use drones and deploy anti-tank guided missiles," Pohorily believes.

Furthermore, Russian forces may advance along the Oskil River on the right bank towards Kindrashivka and Holubivka, which are already approaches to Kupyansk. However, they do not have sufficient groupings for this.

"They must first accumulate forces and occupy territory. Unfortunately, they succeed, and stabilizing the situation is difficult. This may be part of a plan to encircle Kupyansk to launch offensive actions. However, after the previous unsuccessful attempt to capture a few months ago, a lessons-learned analysis was conducted, and I doubt it will be repeated. They exert pressure on Petropavlivka and Kolesnykivka, but so far unsuccessfully," the expert noted.

According to him, the Russians are already redeploying additional forces to the Kupyansk direction from other sectors of the front but are suffering significant losses under the pressure of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

"They are already redeploying their forces. They constantly transfer infantry to the other side, sending them to Dvorichna. Thanks to the Defence Forces, they effectively destroy them, but unfortunately, the constant stream of forces exhausts our military resources. This is especially difficult when there is constant pressure. An example of this is the advance in the Zapadne area and to the south of it. They have again captured Novomlynsk and are gathering their forces there," the expert noted.

According to Pohorilyi, if the Russians succeed in expanding the control zone and occupying a significant portion of the territory, they may bring in additional reserves and genuinely start advancing on Kupyansk.

"Kupyansk is in their strategic plan, and they will not leave it so easily. Therefore, it is emphasized that the bridgeheads on the right bank of the Oskil River must be eliminated, as this could have serious negative consequences for us in the future," he added.