Forecast for Ukraine’s economic growth in 2026 has halved: EBRD names key reasons

Forecast for Ukraine’s economic growth in 2026 has halved: EBRD names key reasons

The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, in its new report, has significantly lowered the forecast for Ukraine’s economic growth in 2026, halving it. While a GDP growth of 5% was previously expected, it is now projected at only 2.5%, which EBRD experts attribute to the ongoing war and challenges in achieving a peace agreement.

"According to the baseline scenario, which assumes that Russia’s war against Ukraine will continue throughout 2026, real GDP growth is expected to be 2.5% in 2026, rising to 4.0% in 2027 if the conflict ends. A peace agreement at the beginning of 2026 could significantly accelerate economic growth in both years, although electricity shortages, poor agricultural performance, and labor market constraints remain serious short-term risks," the EBRD report states.

GDP growth in 2025, according to various estimates, ranged from 1.8% to 2.2%. Last year’s growth rates were lower compared to 2.9% in 2024 and 5.5% in 2023.