Rocket attacks on Ukraine’s energy facilities: occupiers have accumulated 1,500 missiles

Rocket attacks on Ukraine’s energy facilities: occupiers have accumulated 1,500 missiles

On November 17, Russia for the first time in several months launched another attack on Ukraine’s energy sector. It is highly likely that these massive attacks will continue, given that the aggressor has accumulated a significant number of missiles. How Moscow has changed its tactics of strikes and how many resources it has for this, you will learn in the material by the military-political observer of RBC-Ukraine, Ulyana Bezpalko.

Russia is starting a new campaign of strikes on Ukraine’s energy sector. The aggressor country, accumulating production and taking a pause in shelling, has over one and a half thousand missiles in its arsenal, according to data obtained from informed sources. Changes in attack tactics help the Kremlin inflict damage on Ukraine’s energy system.

According to the forecasts of informed interlocutors of the publication, at least until the inauguration of US President Donald Trump, Russia will maximally escalate the situation and raise the stakes. If we consider several scenarios – whether Putin in the coming months will destroy Ukraine’s energy system or wait for steps from the new White House head – the first scenario seems more likely.

What Russia changed in its shelling tactics

Russia has learned lessons from the attacks on Ukraine’s energy sector in 2022-2023. At that time, the enemy, with predictable regularity, struck at our country’s energy facilities with "Shaheds", Kh-101 missiles, and less frequently with sea-based "Kalibrs". After a short blackout in November 2022, Ukrainian energy specialists realized how to counter this scenario. The shelling of the energy system continued until March 9 of the following year, but already from mid-February most consumers in the country were provided with round-the-clock electricity.

There were numerous fears that at the beginning of the heating season of 2023, the aggressor would again plan a campaign of strikes on Ukraine’s energy system. And it indeed began, albeit with a delay, a few days after Putin’s elections in March 2024. Unlike the 2022-2023 season, Moscow revised the tactics and scheme of strikes. Unfortunately, they turned out to be effective. It is highly likely that during this campaign, Russia will stick to the same plan.

Firstly, in 2022-2023, each massive attack was targeted at a specific segment of the energy system. For example, during one shelling, the strikes were primarily on thermal power plants, during another – on hydroelectric power stations, during yet another – on substations serving nuclear power plants, with "Shaheds" usually aimed at transformer substations. From March 2024, Moscow began attacking various elements of the network simultaneously, hitting not just one but several rockets at once.

Secondly, Russia has started with combined strikes. It abandoned the previous schedule, according to which kamikaze drones were used at night, and cruise missiles during the day. "Kinzhal" ballistic missiles are also used, and "Shaheds" often carry out missions simultaneously with missile armament. Considering that Patriot-type systems protect a relatively small territory of Ukraine, ballistic missiles can almost guaranteedly strike the chosen energy system object and damage it.

Thirdly, Moscow changed the interval between attacks. If in the fall of 2022 massive strikes were delivered once every 7 days, then once every 10 days, and in the winter of 2023 – once every 14 days, then from spring 2024 Russia increased this frequency. For example, the first strike was on March 21, the next of the same scale – on March 22, then March 24, 29, and 31. At the same time, the Kremlin systematically attacks various regions with "Shaheds". Russia tries to achieve the maximum effect of surprise, periodically mixing real and simulated launches.

Already at the beginning of April, the government reported that in two weeks, Russia "knocked out" more than six gigawatts of power from Ukraine’s power grid. In particular, hydro and coal energy suffered. In thermal generation, the aggressor destroyed 80% of the capacities.

Shelling with less intensity continued in April, May, June, July, and August. In September, October, and the first half of November, the Russians focused on launching "Shaheds", whose main target was not energy. But already on November 17, after a week of training and practicing simulated and combined strikes, Moscow again attempted to attack Ukrainian thermal power plants, hydroelectric power stations, and substations. Likely, waiting until Ukrainian energy specialists managed to restore part of the damaged objects.

After this attack, Odesa plunged into a local blackout for a day, and in Kyiv, Kyiv, Dnipropetrovsk, and Donetsk regions, electricity shutdown schedules were reintroduced. It can be assumed that Moscow will not stop there.

What is the situation with missiles and "Shaheds" in Moscow

According to the publication, Russia has accumulated a sufficient number of missiles with a range of over 350 kilometers. In addition, the aggressor country, despite all imposed sanctions, has increased the pace of production in some positions over the past year. If a year ago the monthly volume was 115-130 strategic missiles, now, according to journalists, it is about 170. The production volume of ballistic "Iskanders" has increased the most.

According to the publication’s sources, in November Russia plans to produce about 70 "Iskander-M" missiles, and their reserves as of November 20 amount to 350 units. The production plan for cruise missiles for "Iskanders" in November is 12 units, with a reserve of 210.

Regarding Kh-101 missiles, production in November is expected to be 50 units, and the reserve as of November 20 is 220. Now Russia has started launching them not only from Tu-95 but also from Tu-160, which was almost not recorded before. During the shelling on November 21, the enemy again launched several Kh-101 missiles and "Kinzhals" at Ukraine. The largest stockpile has been accumulated of "Kalibr" missiles, with about 390 units on enemy warehouses as of November 20, and planned production in November is 30 units.

The stock of "Kinzhals" is about 70 missiles, with expected production in November of 12 units. Additionally, about 230 units of X-22 (carriers – Tu22M3) may be stored in the aggressor’s warehouses. Russia no longer produces them, but conducts deep modernization of about ten units monthly, obtaining X-32. Moreover, according to journalists, Moscow may have about 45 North Korean ballistic missiles KN-23 in stock.

Infographics: RBC-Ukraine

Another problem for Ukraine is the Russian-Iranian "Shaheds". Since September, the aggressor launched dozens of these kamikaze drones nightly across various regions of the country to exhaust and gather intelligence about our air defense. According to journalists, not all launched are exactly the so-called "geraniums"; they are used together with other long-range drones, such as "gerbers", to increase the salvo. Nevertheless, the production volumes of even the "Shahed-Geran" allow the enemy to terrorize Ukraine nightly. According to journalists, Russia, with the help of components provided by Iran, plans to assemble about 900 units of such drones per month. This is three times more than last year’s figures.

All these figures indicate that no sanctions will prevent Russia from delivering massive strikes on the critical infrastructure of our country if it sets such a goal. Therefore, the resilience of our network for this autumn-winter season primarily depends on the Ukrainian warriors and air defense systems, the skills of our energy specialists, and the presence of at least minimal protection at energy system objects.