ISW: West of Avdiivka, Russian Armed Forces may force AFU to withdraw from tactical positions

Geo-location footage released on 25 April shows Russian troops advancing into the centre of Solovyove (northwest of Avdiivka) from Novobakhmutivka after apparently capturing the entirety of Novobakhmutivka on the night of 24-25 April, the report said.

Russian troops have deployed about a division’s worth of combat power northwest of Avdiivka and appear to be attempting to expand their penetration of Ukrainian defences in the area after making significant advances in Ocheretyne.

These recent Russian advances northwest of Avdiivka have been relatively rapid, but still relatively minor. Since 18 April, the occupiers have advanced no more than five kilometres in depth.

The Russians continue their offensive along the entire frontline west of Avdiivka.

The recent Russian offensive in Novobakhmutivka and Solovyovo expands the main Russian force advancing along the northwest of Avdiivka and provides them with a more stable position from which to make wider penetrations. However, this salient is approximately two kilometres wide at its widest section and would still be vulnerable to Ukrainian counterattacks if Ukrainian forces stabilise the tactical situation in the area.

Specifically, Ocheretyno is located at the junction between the Ukrainian defensive line that Russian forces attacked after capturing Avdiivka in mid-February 2024 and the next defensive line further west, which Russian sources identified as more fortified.

Russian forces may further stabilise their advance northwest of Avdiivka and move further west of Ocheretyne, making it more difficult for Ukrainian forces to hold their positions on the Berdychi-Semenivka-Umanske line.

The Ukrainian command may decide to withdraw Ukrainian forces further west if it deems Russia’s tactical advances in the area too threatening to current Ukrainian positions.

Ukrainian forces withdrew from Avdiivka to relatively ill-prepared defensive positions immediately west of the city after its capture by Russia in mid-February and continued to slow the Russian advance. Positions further west are likely to provide Ukrainian forces with similar or better opportunities to blunt the Russian advance, and Russian forces will likely have to maintain a relatively high tempo of offensive operations to bring the next Ukrainian defensive positions under significant pressure. Russian forces will likely need to replenish and reinforce attacking units northwest of Avdiivka and will likely not be able to sustain the pace of offensive operations required to advance rapidly west of the Berdychi-Semenivka-Umanske line.

"Russian forces are likely to continue to make tactical gains northwest of Avdiivka, but these gains are unlikely to translate into operationally significant penetration, let alone a breakdown of Ukrainian defences west of Avdiivka," the report says.

Eastern Ukraine. Operation #1 - Luhansk region

On 25 April, positional fighting continued on the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, but the front line did not change.

Positional fighting continued:

• north-west of Svatove in the area of Berestove and Stelmakhivka;
• south-west of Svatove near Novovodiane, Druzhelyubivka, Makiivka, Nevske;
• west of Kreminna near Terny, Torske, Zarichne;
• south of Kreminna in the area of Serebryanske forestry and Bilohorivka.

Operation No. 2 – Donetsk region

Positional fighting continued in the Siverskyi sector (north-east of Bakhmut) on 25 April. Geolocation footage published on 25 April showed that Ukrainian forces had advanced further east of Verkhnekamianske than previously estimated, but this advance was likely to have occurred earlier.

Fighting continued east of Siversk in the area of Verkhnekamianske and southeast of Siversk in the area of Spirne and Vyymka.

On 25 April, fighting continued near Chasiv Yar, but there were no confirmed changes in the front line in this area.

Fighting continued on the eastern outskirts of Chasiv Yar, in the Novyi microdistrict, and southeast of Chasiv Yar near Ivanivske and Klishchiyivka.

Russian forces reportedly advanced west of Donetsk as Russia’s offensive in the area continued.

Several Russian sources circulated footage allegedly showing the occupiers raising a flag over the building of the Krasnohorivka Brick Factory in the centre of Krasnohorivka. However, ISW observed only visual confirmation that Russian forces had advanced to the south-western edge of the plant.

Russian forces have recently advanced near the borders of Donetsk and Zaporizhzhya regions amid ongoing trench fighting in the area.

Geolocation footage released on April 25 shows that Russian forces have advanced southeast of Urozhaine (south of Velyka Novosilka).

"Southern Axis"

On April 25, positional fighting continued in the west of the Zaporizhzhya region, but there were no confirmed changes to the front line.

Positional battles continued near Robotyno and northwest of Verbove (east of Robotyno).