Deployment of illegal cigarette lines: petty crime fills the vacuum in the Ukrainian tobacco market

Deployment of illegal cigarette lines: petty crime fills the vacuum in the Ukrainian tobacco market

Ukrainians organize illegal cigarette production in Poland. But not for the EU market, but for Ukraine.

A very interesting trend is observed in the illegal tobacco market.

Almost all illegal factories blocked by the BES have not shipped goods to the market for two months.

The owners’ promises “we are still deciding and it will be as before” did not come true, so a vacuum was created in the market. There is no product, but demand is only growing.

I have already said that the approximate market volume is $60 million per month, so there have always been many people willing to get into the market.

But the TOP 5 factories tightly held the market and did not really allow competitors in.

Now everything has changed. Petty regional crime, seeing the situation, begins to become more active.

Firstly, there is a boom in the import of small cigarette production lines, which will be scattered in dozens across the regions.

Secondly, in the border regions with Ukraine, in the EU, they also began to launch tobacco lines, with an eye specifically on export to Ukraine.

In terms of the excise tax rate, we are getting closer to the Europeans, so economically the difference is no longer very big, no matter what.

And it’s easier to come to an agreement with our customs officers and law enforcement officers “to work.”

So far, all this is only at the initial stage, and the Poles’ exposure of illegal production and detention of Ukrainians is the first sign, but the trend is not very good.

If customs and security officials miss the moment of filling the market with equipment and counterfeit products from the EU, then it will become impossible to fight the illegal market.

It’s one thing to have five players with a legal shell, and another thing to have hundreds of machines scattered across villages under the roof of local crime and security forces.