KIIS: The number of Ukrainians willing to bear the burden of war for as long as needed has decreased

KIIS: The number of Ukrainians willing to bear the burden of war for as long as needed has decreased

The number of Ukrainians willing to endure the hardships of war for as long as needed is decreasing — in December 2024, 57% expressed this sentiment, which is 16 percentage points lower than in December 2023/February 2024.

This is according to the results of a survey by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology, conducted in December 2024.

"From the beginning of the invasion until February 2024, the situation remained virtually unchanged: consistently 71-73% stated they were willing to endure the war for as long as needed (and an additional 2-3% mentioned 1 year). During this period, 18-21% declared a shorter personal endurance (a few months to half a year). However, between February and October 2024, we recorded for the first time a decrease in the share of those willing to endure as long as needed — down to 63%.

Between early October and December 2024, we also observed a slight decrease in the share of those willing to endure as long as needed — down to 57%."

 

Infographic by KIIS

Sociologists also note that the share of those who speak of a shorter period (a few months to half a year) changed slightly — 21% in December (compared to 18% in early October). However, the number of those who find it "difficult to say" how much longer they can endure increased from 12% to 18%.

"Thus, between October and December, there was mostly no decrease in Ukrainians’ endurance, but rather an increase in uncertainty (which reflects high uncertainty due to a combination of external factors (such as the elections in the U.S.) and internal circumstances)," explained KIIS.

Sociologists note that while between February 2024 and early October 2024, the decrease in endurance was mainly observed in the south and (especially) the east, by December 2024, there was "equalization" between regions. Thus, by the end of the year, the difference between regions became significantly less noticeable (although there are still slightly fewer willing to endure as long as needed in the east, and uncertainty has increased).

 

Infographic by KIIS

Sociologists also presented respondents’ answers regarding their family income levels.

"On one hand, there is a trend: the better-off a respondent’s family, the higher the endurance. On the other hand, it is important to note that even among respondents with low income (who, therefore, are more vulnerable), 51% responded that they are willing to endure as long as needed," the report states.

Among respondents with an average income, 58% expressed this view, and among those with high income — 70%.

 

Infographic by KIIS

"These data show that the willingness to endure the war is only partially related to material living conditions, and in fact, other factors have a greater impact on endurance," KIIS concluded.

The survey was conducted from December 2 to December 17, 2024. Using the method of telephone interviews based on a random sample of mobile numbers, 985 respondents aged 18 and over residing in Ukraine’s government-controlled territory were interviewed.

The sample did not include residents of territories temporarily not controlled by the Ukrainian authorities (although some respondents were internally displaced persons who had moved from occupied territories), and the survey did not include citizens who left the country after February 24, 2022.

Under normal circumstances, the statistical error of such a sample (with a probability of 0.95 and taking into account a design effect of 1.3) does not exceed 4.1% for indicators close to 50%, 3.5% for indicators close to 25%, 2.5% for indicators close to 10%, and 1.8% for indicators close to 5%.

In wartime conditions, in addition to the specified formal error, some systematic deviation is added, but sociologists believe that the obtained results still retain high representativeness and allow for reliable analysis of public sentiments.