Mashovets: Syrskyi’s plan to "loosen the pincers" near Pokrovsk may turn out to be unrealistic

Mashovets: Syrskyi’s plan to "loosen the pincers" near Pokrovsk may turn out to be unrealistic

Ukrainian military analyst Kostyantyn Mashovets expressed doubts about the possibility of implementing the intentions of the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ command to "loosen" the pincers of Russian encirclement in the Pokrovsk area.

«Judging by the public statement of General Syrskyi, his approach to resolving the «Pokrovsk problem» boils down to eliminating the northeastern «pincers» — in other words, pushing the enemy’s 51st Combined Arms Army beyond the Kazennyi Torets River, at least in the areas of Sukhetske – Razine and Sukhetske – Fedorivka. At the same time, the plan is to hold the northern part of Pokrovsk and, if possible, drive the enemy out of the so-called industrial zone (the area of the 9th Fire and Rescue Unit, Nakhimov Street, etc.)», — notes Mashovets.

He further points out factors that could hinder the implementation of this plan.

First, in the Razine area, Russian forces have created a «powerful defensive line», which they continue to fortify. «This indicates that the 51st Combined Arms Army clearly has no intention of surrendering its bridgehead on the Kazennyi Torets», — emphasizes Mashovets.

Second, the Russian side is constantly sending reinforcements to the areas of Krasnyi Lyman and Zatyshok (Suvorove). «This clearly points to plans for a breakthrough in the direction of Hryshyne (west of Pokrovsk. — Ed.) and the northeastern part of Myrnohrad», — states the expert.

In his opinion, even if Ukrainian forces achieve success in the neighboring Rodynske, the Russians will not abandon their intentions to advance on Hryshyne, primarily due to their clear numerical superiority.

«Most likely, the command of the 51st Russian Army will do everything possible to maintain control over the Zatyshok – Fedorivka – Razine – Krasnyi Lyman area. The area of this bridgehead is 7.1 × 4.7 km. Units of at least four Russian brigades have been spotted there. How to dislodge them with only two Ukrainian brigades at disposal is likely known only to General Syrskyi», — comments Mashovets.

In addition, he draws attention to the ongoing attacks by Russian forces northeast of Pokrovsk, near the base of the Dobropillya salient — in the direction of Rusyn Yar – Novopavlivka and along the Volodymyrivka – Shakhove line. «This means that the desire of the Ukrainian command to completely eliminate the bridgehead of the 51st Army on the Kazennyi Torets River after nearly fully neutralizing its Dobropillya salient will be extremely difficult to achieve in practice», — believes the expert.

According to Mashovets, Pokrovsk is currently a complete «gray zone» with mixed combat formations of both sides, where only the Ukrainian Armed Forces are firmly entrenched in the north and the Russian Armed Forces in the south of the city. Battles are ongoing for dominant heights, key points of the city, including high-rise buildings and the central part.

«However, it is obvious that the 2nd Combined Arms Army of the Russian Federation will do everything to avoid surrendering the industrial zone of Pokrovsk, — this is a fact», — asserts the expert (recall that the industrial zone is located in the northwestern part of Pokrovsk and plays a crucial role in blocking the city from the main Ukrainian forces). In his opinion, individual special forces groups sent there by Kyiv are unable to solve this problem.

Even more complicated, according to Mashovets, is the situation in the neighboring Myrnohrad, where the Ukrainian Armed Forces have a «very narrow corridor for supply and maneuver, including a possible withdrawal». In this regard, he suggests withdrawing troops from the city.

«From the perspective of tactical expediency, the further defense of Myrnohrad (at least its southern part) under such conditions appears doubtful», — concludes Mashovets.