With actions in Kursk region of the Russian Federation, the Ukrainian Armed Forces were able to achieve operational surprise, - ISW

With actions in Kursk region of the Russian Federation, the Ukrainian Armed Forces were able to achieve operational surprise, - ISW

Analysts at the Institute for the Study of War suggest that the lack of a coordinated Russian response to the Ukrainian invasion of Kursk and the speed of its advance indicate that Ukrainian forces were able to achieve operational surprise.

ISW writes about this

The Ukrainian cross-border mechanized offensive operation in the Kursk region, which began on August 6, continues as part of Ukrainian operational efforts on Russian territory.

"ISW will not make any assessments regarding the intentions of this Ukrainian operation in order not to jeopardize Ukraine’s operational security."

As analysts note, the Kremlin will almost certainly try to recapture Russian territory in the Kursk region that Ukrainian forces seized and stop Ukrainian activity, since a significant Ukrainian advance into Russia would be a strategic blow to Russian ruler Vladimir Putin’s years-long efforts to cement narratives of stability, security and geopolitical revival.

ISW suggests that if Russian reports on the situation in Kursk are accurate and if the Russian military command perceives the situation as described by Russian sources, then the Russian military command has a number of likely courses of action (CAO) that it could employ in response to a Ukrainian operation in Kursk.

The Russian military command may decide to use existing conscripts, the FSB, the Russian National Guard, and other irregular forces already deployed in the international border area to push back Ukrainian troops and defend against a Ukrainian operation in the Kursk region.

It may decide to use the existing Northern Group of Forces deployed along the Russian-Ukrainian border to respond to a Ukrainian offensive.

The Russian military command may decide to redeploy operational reserves accumulated for the planned offensive in the summer of 2024 and/or transfer relatively better supplied and more combat-ready forward units to the Kursk region from other parts of the front.

The Russian military command may try to maintain the forces that are in the Kursk region, but may redeploy significant numbers of aircraft and strike units there in an attempt to improve Russia’s ability to recapture the territory.

"Putin likely believes that he must respond to the threat to civilians to reassure the Russian public that the situation is under control and to avoid significant domestic unrest."

The review notes that Ukrainian officials have not yet commented directly on the ongoing operation in the Kursk region.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said on August 8 that Russia "brought war to Ukraine" and must "feel what it did" in response.

"The lack of a coordinated Russian response to the Ukrainian invasion of the Kursk region and the speed of the Ukrainian troops’ advance indicate that Ukrainian troops were able to achieve operational surprise along the border with Russia."

"Both Russian and Ukrainian forces have attempted to achieve operational surprise over the past year and a half of fighting due to the partial transparency of the battlefield in Ukraine.

Ukraine’s ability to achieve operational surprise highlights that the broad visual and sensory transparency established by both sides does not mean complete battlefield transparency, and that the combatants in Ukraine can exploit uncertainty about operational intentions to achieve surprise."

Analysts recall that ISW has already assessed that Russian forces have failed to learn lessons about the difficulties of mechanized maneuvers on the supposedly transparent battlefield in Ukraine.

However, it appears that Ukraine is learning and adapting to this aspect of the battlefield, given its ability to achieve demonstrable operational surprise in this case.