Hetmantsev: Ukraine’s economy will only return to pre-war levels by 2034

Such rates of economic recovery are clearly insufficient. This was stated by Danylo Hetmantsev, head of the Verkhovna Rada Committee on Finance, Tax, and Customs Policy, in Telegram.

"At the current pace of economic growth, we will reach the pre-war level of GDP in real terms in 2034. Security risks have been and will remain the main restraining factor of development. In this context, during peace negotiations, it is indeed important for us to obtain reliable security as well as economic guarantees for post-war development," he wrote.

Hetmantsev noted that according to the Ministry of Economy estimates, real GDP growth in February 2025 was 0.7%, and for the first two months of 2025 — 1.1% (compared to the same period last year).

"The Ukrainian economy has been slowing down since the second quarter of last year against the backdrop of a high base of comparison for recovery and exhaustion due to the full-scale war (infrastructure shelling, electricity shortages, structural problems in the labor market, and other security factors that adversely affect production activities and business expectations)," the deputy said.

And at the beginning of 2025, weak export activity added to these factors: a decrease in goods exports to $6.3 billion, or by 7.4% compared to January-February 2024.

In addition, the recovery of transport was suppressed, and the production of livestock products decreased.

"Real GDP growth in 2025 is estimated at 2.7% (after expected 3.6% in 2024, 5.3% in 2023, and a decline of 28.8% in the first year of the full-scale war)," Hetmantsev concluded.