"Mobilization boom"

"Mobilization boom"

"ANTIKOR" talked with representatives of the capital’s authorities, the TRC, military personnel and lawyers regarding the implementation of the new law on mobilization.

On May 18, 2024, the Law of Ukraine “On amendments to certain legislative acts of Ukraine on certain issues of military service, mobilization and military registration” came into force, which is popularly called the “law on strengthening mobilization.” Before the Law came into force, social networks were mostly dominated by panic.

The summons, which was probably sent from Russia, indicated that from May 18, those liable for military service would be caught on the streets, and the men themselves would “lock themselves in their houses.” However, this did not happen. How the first week passed since the law came into force is in our report.

Queues at the shopping center

At the end of the week, ANTIKOR correspondents visited one of the capital’s TRCs to see with their own eyes what was happening there. It’s 11:10 and there are about a hundred people in line. As people who stood for several hours under the scorching sun near the checkpoint to enter the TRC explained to us, the queue became much smaller: at 8 am there were more than 200 people, some were able to go to the military registration and enlistment office, while others, realizing that it was unlikely to get into the TRC will come out to hit, separated.

90% of people wishing to get into the TRC have the right to a deferment or reservation. There are also those who were excluded from military registration due to health reasons, but now want to receive “legal” documents, since without them they will not be allowed to go abroad.

There are also queues in the TRC itself - most people came to update their data. Those who have expired or missing military registration documents are sent to the Military Military Commission. Despite the fact that the TRC operates seven days a week, the military medical examination is only possible on Tuesdays and Thursdays.

“This law has significantly worsened the situation for us, because now we let about 700 people through every day. 680 of these 700 have legal grounds for deferment from service, others are questionable: those with health problems undergo additional examinations, which can last up to 2 months. That is, we recognize up to 10 people per day who can be mobilized as fit for military service. We mobilize even less, about 5 people a day. This is despite the fact that officially more than 200 thousand citizens are registered with us, but at least 300 thousand actually live. People do not register, essentially remaining “invisible.” The only chance to do something with them is only if they are stopped by a patrol on the street or given a summons,” one of the officers who is serving in the TRC after being wounded on the front line told ANTIKOR.

Capital inquiries

According to ANTIKOR’s sources in the Kyiv City State Administration, mobilization indicators for the capital have been significantly increased. If earlier in all districts of Kyiv the goal was to mobilize 2,500 people per month, now the plan is 10,000 people.

“These are unrealistic numbers. In the regions, if you look at the real situation, previously the plan was fulfilled by 50%. Now he has been raised four times at once. In the best case, it will be possible to mobilize 2000-3000 people per month, but these are still plans. In May there will definitely not be such a number of military personnel, perhaps the situation will change before the end of July, but this is not a fact,” one of the KSCA employees told us.

The district state administrations of the capital are also “not happy” with the fact that they, among other things, were entrusted with the function of issuing subpoenas. This is explained by the fact that, firstly, there is already a shortage of personnel, and someone must do additional work. Secondly, out of several thousand utility workers, only 10-20% are booked. That is, they will mobilize themselves. But a much bigger problem is that if blue-collar workers are called up for military service, in particular engineers, electricians, plumbers, etc., it will be difficult to find qualified people to take their place.

“We will somehow proceed from the current situation. We are working on this, but problems are already being felt. For example, in one of the municipal enterprises all those liable for military service were mobilized. There is no one left to work there, so we had to urgently recruit new workers and transfer them from other structures in order to close this hole. As for issuing summonses: we will create “mobile groups” that, together with police representatives, will go door-to-door, communicate with people, identify those evading military duty and issue them summonses. Then it’s up to the TRC and law enforcement officers,” a representative of one of the capital’s district state administrations told ANTIKOR on condition of anonymity.

Foggy future

The authorities gave those liable for military service 2 months to update the data. Until July 16, those who want to fulfill the conditions stipulated by law have a wide range of update functionality: these include TRCs, CNAPs, and the Reserve+ application. True, Reserve+ often experiences glitches, as we wrote about in our TG channel, and operators do not respond to error messages in the application.

Key question: what after July 16? After all, everyone who has not updated their data will automatically become “outside the law.”

Lawyers with whom the editorial board of ANTIKOR spoke agree that the mass hysteria caused by the entry into force of the law is rather a pro-Russian narrative. Major changes may occur after July 16th.

“We have a fairly clear time frame: from May 18 to July 16, those liable for military service must update their data. Those who came to “renew” will not be given summonses, but the TRC can easily send a summons to the place of residence of the person liable for military service in a week or two. The situation will be different from July 18: everyone who has not updated their military registration data will be able to be detained on the street for up to 3 hours and sent to the TRC. If a person has no reason to defer military service, it is highly likely that he will be mobilized. Also, those liable for military service who have not updated the data will be able to impose a fine of 17 thousand hryvnia, and in the future they will be forced to carry out decisions through the executive service,” lawyers explained in a conversation with ANTIKOR.

As experts note, increased mobilization is an integral element of further combat operations. At the official level, it has been repeatedly recognized that the reserves are depleted and that the Defense Forces need fresh blood to continue effective combat operations. However, big questions arise about the motivation and quality of the newly arrived fighters.