ISW: Delay of Western aid will make Ukraine’s front line ’fragile’

ISW: Delay of Western aid will make Ukraine’s front line ’fragile’

Shortages of ammunition and other military equipment in Ukraine, caused by delays in the provision of US military assistance, will affect the defense and offensive capabilities of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. It could make the current Ukrainian front line “more fragile” than the slow advance of Russian troops in different sectors would suggest.

If Ukrainian forces do not receive the necessary shells and equipment, the occupiers may take advantage of this to attempt a breakthrough on a vulnerable section of the front. This is pointed out by analysts at the Institute for the Study of War ( ISW).

It is believed that Ukraine’s prioritization of sectors of the front that are currently most threatened by intensive Russian offensive operations could create vulnerabilities elsewhere. Thus, the occupiers will be able to use this for sudden and unexpected development if Western supplies of military forces continue to decline.

“Russia’s retention of the initiative throughout the theater of operations increases the risks of such a development, allowing the Russian military command to increase or decrease operations almost at will anywhere on the front line,” ISW said.

On March 12, the German publication Der Spiegel published an interview with unnamed Ukrainian commanders, who also stated that almost all units and formations of the Defence Forces are forced to save ammunition and equipment due to their general shortage. They said some units with limited resources would only be able to hold their current positions unless Russian troops "attack with full force."

The Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Colonel-General Oleksandr Syrskyi, warned about the threat of the occupiers advancing deep into the Ukrainian formations in unspecified sections of the front line.

According to analysts, the Ukrainian Defence Forces are likely trying to mitigate problems caused by the shortage of ammunition by prioritizing their distribution on front sectors where larger offensive operations by Russian troops are being carried out. The lower intensity of Russian attacks against areas that are currently not a priority likely overshadows the risks to the Ukrainian Armed Forces in these areas arising from the lack of weapons.

They emphasized that the current front line is most likely unstable, and the timely provision of Western resources to Ukrainian troops is important to prevent Russia from identifying and exploiting the possibility of a breakthrough in a vulnerable forward sector.