The occupiers are intensifying their mobilization for the offensive, but this may not help them, - ISW

It is noted that the Kremlin is strengthening crypto-mobilization efforts in order to avoid another partial mobilization call for reservists. The current campaign mobilizes 30 thousand recruits every month, and by the end of the year it is planned to replenish the army by 300 thousand troops.

According to Bloomberg sources, lump-sum payments for signing a contract in Russian regions have increased by 40 percent to an average of 470 thousand rubles ($4,992), and a Russian insider source claims that some authorities are offering a million rubles ($10,622). ), if a person wants to enter into a contract for service.

The ISW report notes that Russian officials are concerned about declining recruitment rates and may intend to make economic incentives a cornerstone of crypto mobilization efforts in the spring and summer of 2024. In early April, the Russian Ministry of Defence reported that since the beginning of the year, more than 100 thousand Russians have signed contracts for military service. However, intensified Russian crypto-mobilization efforts are unlikely to lead to the mobilization of another 200 thousand people ahead of the expected Russian offensive operation in the summer of 2024.

“In recent months, the Russian Armed Forces have been replenished at a rate equal to their losses in Ukraine, and increased monthly conscription is unlikely to create a significant surplus of personnel for Russian operational and strategic reserves,” the ISW report says.

It is noted that Russian troops have continued and even intensified offensive operations this spring, and they will continue to absorb significant numbers of personnel that could be used to form reserves as long as Russian troops maintain the current pace of offensive in Ukraine.

Given these facts, Russian troops are unlikely to form large reserves ahead of the expected offensive operation in the summer of 2024. The limited time left for Russian troops to prepare for the expected summer offensive will likely mean that the additional personnel added in the coming months will be ill-prepared and less capable.

“A Russian insider source complains about the low level of Russian training and claims that some Russian volunteer forces are leaving the ranks altogether for new personnel due to a lack of proper training,” the report says.

ISW continues to assess that Russia’s planned operational and strategic reserves, while unlikely to be ready to operate as first-tier penetration forces or second-tier operational forces, are capable of conducting large-scale offensives in 2024 if the Ukrainian Armed Forces have sufficient capabilities to resist them.

"Russian forces will likely use these reserves as they have done before - as immediately available reserves of manpower to augment and reinforce existing units that conduct massive, heavy infantry attacks with periodic limited mechanized offensives," it says in ISW report.