ISW: Occupiers likely to intensify missile strikes in coming weeks

ISW observed that Russian forces continued, and in some areas intensified, ongoing offensive operations, likely taking advantage of abnormally dry spring conditions and shortages of Ukrainian equipment until the arrival of promised Western security assistance.

Russian forces have also attempted to exploit Ukraine’s air defense deficiencies in an attempt to destroy the Ukrainian energy grid and cause long-term damage to Ukrainian infrastructure and defense industrial capabilities.

Following the announcement of the US aid package, Russian military commanders are likely to step up offensive operations, as well as missile and drone strikes, to achieve operationally significant results that will certainly be more difficult to achieve against well-equipped Ukrainian forces.

Russian forces may still be able to make significant operational gains in the coming weeks and may prioritize sectors of the front where Ukrainian defenses appear relatively unstable, especially west of Avdiivka, or sectors of the front where Russian troops are within range of operationally significant object, for example, near Chasiv Yar.

Russian forces may be hoping that continued intensified missile and drone strikes may be able to disrupt the Ukrainian power grid and force Ukraine to grapple with a humanitarian crisis alongside ongoing defense operations.

They could also change their goals and attack Ukrainian transport infrastructure to limit Ukraine’s ability to sufficiently distribute manpower and equipment on critical sectors of the front.

Russian forces will also likely decide to take advantage of the weakness of Ukrainian air defenses along the front and step up glide bomb strikes in the coming weeks in hopes of doing more damage to Ukrainian defensive positions before it becomes more risky for Russian aircraft to carry out these strikes against the backdrop of an improved Ukrainian air defence position.