Russia intensifies offensive on Chasiv Yar, – ISW

Russia intensifies offensive on Chasiv Yar, – ISW

The pace of Russian offensive operations is currently higher in the Avdiivka direction than in the Chasiv Yar area, since the aggressor is focused on exploiting the window of resource shortages in the Ukrainian Armed Forces. At the same time, the enemy is giving the opportunity to rest his forces in the Chasiv Yar area and in the coming days will intensify assaults towards the city, which gives him the opportunity for the most significant advances in operational terms.

The invaders’ tactics were analyzed by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). They emphasized that the Russian army is currently not capable of a “breakthrough” in several areas at once, but will alternate shorter assaults between them in order to fulfill the Kremlin’s instructions.

It is noted that Russia recently deployed approximately one division’s worth of combat power northwest of Avdiivka, which, according to unofficial Ukrainian estimates, gave it a roughly three-fold advantage over Ukraine’s existing combat power in the same area. The enemy has sent new forces to where the Ukrainian Armed Forces have been struggling with resource constraints, allowing them to make tactical gains in areas north and northwest of Avdiivka in recent weeks.

The advance of Russian troops in the direction of Chasiv Yar, on the contrary, has slowed down significantly over the past week - propagandists complained that the front line there remained without significant changes, and the pace of Russian operations decreased.

ISW has previously frequently assessed that Russian forces had difficulty conducting simultaneous large-scale offensive operations throughout the war. But since the beginning of 2024, they have been able to carry out shorter assaults, alternating in offensive “impulses”, for example, towards Avdiivka, Lyman and Chasiv Yar.

According to military experts, the Russian Armed Forces are leaning towards attacks northwest of Avdiivka to consolidate the recent tactical success they have achieved while their forces stationed along the Chasiv Yar axis temporarily retreat from the offensive objective to rest and recover.

"Russian forces will likely soon increase the pace of their offensive in the Chasiv Yar area again, and this pressure could become significant. If they can intensify their attacks and capture the city, they will be able to use it as a springboard for subsequent offensive operations against the most important fortified cities of Ukraine - Konstantynivka and Druzhkivka,” ISW predicted.

True, analysts noted, the Russian Army will need to replenish and strengthen the units currently attacking populated areas in the area of captured Avdiivka.

“The process of replenishment and strengthening of forces will likely reduce the overall intensity of their attacks and limit the ability to achieve the broader operational goal of capturing Pokrovsk and entering the administrative borders of the entire Donetsk region quickly while Ukrainian forces receive the necessary reinforcements and supplies,” the Institute of Studies concluded. war.