Russia may lose its financial cushion as early as 2026 – FISU

Russia may lose its financial cushion as early as 2026 – FISU

According to the Foreign Intelligence Service of Ukraine, Russia has spent most of its National Wealth Fund (NWF) during the three years of full-scale invasion.

This was stated in the report by the Foreign Intelligence Service.

With the current restrictions in place and additional measures from the West, including enhanced monitoring of oil sanctions evasion, the Russian Federation risks depleting the remaining reserves of the National Wealth Fund by 2026.

The report indicates that as of early July 2022, the liquid part of the NWF amounted to $145 billion. By July 2023, this figure had decreased to $78 billion. As of May 1, 2025, the reserves were only $39 billion.

Since the beginning of the full-scale war, the fund has diminished nearly fourfold.

"It is forecasted that in 2025, the average price of Brent crude oil will be $64 per barrel, and in 2026 – $60. For Russia, whose budget is filled by oil and gas revenues, this trend creates critical fiscal risks," the report said.

According to counterintelligence data, the projects of the state corporation "Rosatom" planned for 2025 remain underfunded by 80%, "Russian Railways" is experiencing a decline in transportation volume, and in the mining, metallurgical, and construction sectors, production is falling, while Russian corporations are massively suspending dividend payments.

"Despite this, Moscow continues to publicly display confidence in the stability of the economy. However, state-controlled propaganda, which conceals the true scale of economic decline, does not change the facts: the resource-driven model of the Russian economy is losing its efficiency," the FISU stated.