The population of Ukraine has decreased by 10 million: what are the demographic consequences of the war

The population of Ukraine has decreased by 10 million: what are the demographic consequences of the war

The full scale of the war has significantly changed the demographic situation in Ukraine. In two and a half years, the population has decreased by at least 10 million.

This is reported by Frontliner.

The main reasons are migration, increased mortality, decreased birth rate, and an aging population. This creates serious challenges for the country’s development.

It is reported that at the beginning of 2022, over 40 million people lived in Ukraine (excluding Crimea). As of mid-2024, about 35.8 million remained, of which 31.1 million are in controlled territories. Thus, the country has lost approximately 10 million residents.

Migration

The mass departure of Ukrainians abroad has become the main factor in population reduction. About 5 million people are outside the country, mostly in Europe. The majority are in Poland, Germany, Czech Republic, Italy, and Spain.

The longer the war continues, the fewer emigrants plan to return, especially men of conscription age. The government is considering incentives—from reserving specialists to housing and job programs—but for now, millions are building lives abroad.

The eastern and southern regions have been greatly emptied—millions have left Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, Zaporizhzhya, and Kharkiv regions. The central and western regions have accepted a significant number of displaced people, but they too have faced population decline due to emigration.

Losses and Mortality

There are no exact data on the number of dead, but it is estimated to be tens of thousands of military personnel and thousands of civilians. Mortality has also increased due to a weakened healthcare system, as well as stress and exacerbation of diseases.

Birth Rate at a Historic Low

In 2023, only about 180,000 children were born—the lowest in modern history. The reasons are danger, economic difficulties, and uncertainty about the future. The share of children under 18 is 15%, while people aged 60+ already account for 27%. Ukraine is rapidly aging, and new generations are becoming fewer.

Another reason cited is the lack of effective demographic policy. At the end of 2024, the Demographic Development Strategy until 2040 and the action plan for 2024-2027 were approved, but so far, this has not yielded positive results. According to government forecasts, by 2041, Ukraine’s population may shrink to 29 million people. At the same time, a reverse scenario is possible—gradual recovery, but only if the war ends, the economy stabilizes, and large-scale recovery takes place.